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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T08:19Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 36.6667%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.25
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -182.98 hour(s)
Difference: -6.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-09-24T16:28Z

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